بررسی تأثیر طول عمر بر پس‌انداز در ایران

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 دانشگاه اصفهان

3 دانشگاه تریت مدرس

چکیده

  در حالی که مطالعات تجربی پیشین، اثر منفی نرخ‌های وابستگی افراد را بر پس‌انداز بدون توجه به متغیر طول عمر مورد بررسی قرار داده‌اند، در این پژوهش با در نظر گرفتن جایگاه و اهمیت پدیده سالخوردگی جمعیت و افزایش طول عمر طی دهه‌های اخیر، برآورد تابع پس‌انداز ایران را در دوره 1347-1389مورد بررسی قرار داده‌ایم. پس از طراحی تابع پس‌انداز برای ایران، از تکنیک همجمعی ARDL برای بررسی وجود رابطه بلندمدت بین متغیرها استفاده کرده و ضرایب مربوط به مدل‌های بلندمدت و تصحیح خطا را برآورد کرده‌ایم. آزمون‌های CUSUM و CUSUMSQ پایداری تابع پس‌انداز در ایران را نشان می‌دهد. نرخ وابستگی افراد مسن، نرخ پس‌انداز را چه در کوتاه مدت و چه در بلندمدت کاهش می‌دهد؛ در حالی که طول عمر در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت، اثر مثبت و معناداری بر نرخ پس‌انداز دارد و البته این اثر در بلندمدت بیش از کوتاه‌مدت است. هم در کوتاه‌مدت و هم در بلندمدت مقدار مطلق اثر نرخ وابستگی افراد مسن بیشتر از اثر طول عمر است. نتایج بررسی طول عمر، پاسخ مثبت افراد به افزایش امید به زندگی را نشان می‌دهد. در واقع، امید به زندگی بالاتر گویای بهبود وضعیت سلامت افراد سالخورده و مسن است که سبب می‌شود بر نحوه­ رفتار پس‌انداز آنها تأثیر گذاشته و آنها با یک دوراندیشی نسبت به این وضعیت، بر میزان پس‌انداز خود بیفزایند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Effect of Longevity on Saving in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Farzane Mohammadi 1
  • Bahram Sahabi 1
  • Neamatollah Akbari 2
  • Abbas Asari 3
1 tarbiat modares university
2 isfahan university
3 tarbiat modares university
چکیده [English]

 
Earlier empirical studies found that age dependency rates have a negative effect on saving, but they have not considered longevity as a factor. The rising longevity and aging of the population in recent decades is an important factor that this research takes into account and estimates Iran's saving function in the period of 1968-2010. In this study a saving function is designed for Iran and CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests show the stability of the saving function. Then the ARDL approach to Cointegration is applied to analyze the long-run relationships among variables and coefficients for the long-run and the error correction models have been estimated. We found that old-age dependency rate reduces the saving rate in the short-run and the long-run while longevity has a significantly positive effect on the saving rate in the short-run and the long-run, However, this effect is greater in long-run rather than short-run. The absolute value of the old-age dependency rate effect is greater than the longevity effect both in the long-run and the short-run. The result of this study shows the individual's positive response to rising life expectancy. Indeed, higher life expectancy indicates the promotion of elderly health status. It affects their saving behavior, makes them more provident and save more.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Longevity
  • Old-age Dependency Rate
  • Saving

 

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